I grew up when television switched from black and white to color and the NBC peacock was the icon of family entertainment. There were three networks and no cable or satellite distribution. Televisions had knobs. There were no hand-held remotes. The screens were rounded, low-definition cathode ray tubes, and yes, we loved them. We watched The Ed Sullivan Show, Bonanza and ABC’s Wide World of Sports — life was good, entertainment was simple, and we watched as a family.
Magic
Flash forward about 60 years. Imagine a boardroom in which three 1960s network executives are shown a PowerPoint on how television has evolved (since they received their gold watches). Not only are they astonished at the PowerPoint itself and overwhelmed at the iPads and flat screens in the board room, but they’re floored by the fact that modern day viewers are totally happy to watch network shows on little hand-held screens.
Arthur C. Clarke, the famous science fiction writer, once said “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” — and we truly live in the age of magic. We have smart phones, Wi-Fi hotspots and video-on-demand — all served up with mega-pixels in the palm of our hand. We can edit and distribute our own programming on YouTube, and in fact, Dick Tracy’s “two-way wrist TV” prediction has come true (except that it’s called FaceTime). Folks, it is freakin’ magic.
Linear and Non-linear
What’s the result of all this new age delivery? Traditional broadcasters are in chaos, because ratings are declining, and viewers are making a beeline towards IP-based delivery services on small screens.
Traditional television has always been delivered in a linear fashion. In this model, programs are produced and broadcast at set times, per schedule. The first digression from this pattern was created by TiVo years ago, with the first mass-market Digital Video Recorder (DVR). Now, every cable and satellite delivery system has an optional DVR that provides a personal “time delay” system. This changes one’s entertainment from linear to non-linear — that is, programming is delivered when and where we want it, rather than when they (the networks) want it.
Soon after the start of the TiVo era, companies such as Netflix grabbed the non-linear model and ran with it. Television shows and movies are now delivered to your mailbox in little red envelopes, but more importantly, with the advent of high-speed Internet, programming can be downloaded (or streamed) to our PCs, smart phones and tablets with ease. Our new “tech savvy” generation is perfectly comfortable with small-screen delivery — the screens are high-resolution, the color is beautiful and the content is more important than the screen dimensions. You want a big screen? Go to the movies or a concert.
On Demand
The streaming trend has resonated with start-ups and the networks themselves. Most every network has an “on-demand” service and exclusive non-linear delivery services such as “Hulu” and “HBO Go” are gaining market share. Don’t blink, but Internet-based television is slowly replacing linear television and tailor-made apps are slowly replacing individual channels.
Why the trend towards streaming? Because we lead busy, non-linear, randomly scheduled lives (for the most part), and we like our entertainment to follow suit. We also like “custom” entertainment that suits our lifestyles and interests, and the web is the ideal platform. We’re comfortable with multiple screens and we’re comfortable with small screens — as long as that Wi-Fi signal is strong. And we’re definitely not comfortable with subscription services that charge us for 500 channels when we only watch 10.
A Shining Exception
Amidst all this change, let’s not read the obituary for linear television quite yet. One example stands out, and it’s here to stay — namely, event-based broadcasting. “Sports” is the shining exception that’s keeping traditional linear television alive, and it’s better than ever. I can get my news on line, but my NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, Golf and World Cup soccer is best served up live. The quality is superb, the multi-camera multi-replay coverage is excellent, and the announcers (for the most part) really know their stuff. In fact, ESPN has capitalized on the streaming wave with the WatchESPN app for smartphones and tablets. (Of course, you’ll have to understand the term “clutch,” but once you do, ESPN will certainly let you sign up.)
Something Amazing This Way Comes
From linear to TiVo to Netflix to streaming media, the world of television is changing fast, with no signs of stopping. The big question is — what does the future hold for broadcasting? Where’s this all leading? Should they begin tearing down the broadcast towers and antennas?
Honestly, my crystal ball doesn’t see that far into the future, but something is definitely stirring in the near term. Even Arthur C. Clarke can’t imagine it.
If you’re tech savvy, the term “Google Glass” might be familiar to you. Imagine a computer that you wear, with a heads-up display built into the glasses themselves. Imagine that you can take pictures, watch and record video, search online — all completely hands-free, because the device is voice activated. In fact, it’s a product in development by Google themselves, with predicted consumer availability in 2014.
The science fiction community very often leads the realm of the possible, and this very concept was at the foundation of a remarkable book by Vernor Vinge, a science fiction author and retired professor of mathematics at San Diego State University. In his novel, Rainbows End, Vinge’s characters used a concept called augmented reality, in which their contact lenses displayed virtual overlays of the “reality” around them. Sound similar to Google Glass? You betcha, Sparky.
In summary, I can’t tell you where we’re headed in video land, but I can tell you that the train is accelerating. The direction is summed up by Netflix, in a recently published white paper called Netflix Long Term View.
“Over the coming decades and across the world, Internet TV will replace linear TV. Apps will replace channels, remote controls will disappear, and screens will proliferate. As Internet TV grows from millions to billions, Netflix, HBO and ESPN are leading the way.”
Stay tuned and brace yourself, people — it’s changing fast
